As the world grapples with the escalating challenge of climate change, the need for innovative solutions to mitigate carbon emissions is of paramount importance. Waste-to-energy solutions have emerged as a viable strategy to address this issue by converting waste materials into energy sources, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions and diminishing the reliance on fossil fuels. In this comprehensive report, we present a detailed analysis of waste-to-energy solutions, their role in reducing carbon emissions, their potential advantages and disadvantages, and their significance in the global transition towards sustainable waste management and clean energy.

Converting waste to energy presents a substantial potential for reducing carbon emissions. According to projections, this approach can avert a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, ranging from 6.27 to 5.24 gigatons. The primary mechanisms contributing to these emission reductions are the curbing of methane emissions from landfills and the decreased demand for fossil fuels, which results from the generation of electricity and heat through waste-to-energy processes.

Waste-to-energy solutions are considered a transition strategy, one that is expected to decline in importance as more eco-friendly waste management practices, such as zero waste initiatives, composting, and recycling, become more widely adopted. Nevertheless, the generation of electricity from waste-to-energy plants is projected to expand significantly. Currently estimated at approximately 140 terawatt-hours, this electricity generation capacity is expected to grow to between 340.32 and 104.92 terawatt-hours by 2050, contingent on the total electricity generation needs at that time.

The primary responsibility concerning waste management remains waste minimization. Once efforts are made to reduce, recycle, and reuse, the residual waste requires attention. Converting waste to energy through incineration, gasification, or pyrolysis represents a waste management strategy that simultaneously diminishes greenhouse gas emissions, specifically by mitigating methane generation from landfills, and provides a source of energy as an alternative to fossil fuels. It is important to note, however, that this approach can introduce air, water, and land pollution concerns due to the release of toxic pollutants.

The Waste to Energy solution, as formulated by Project Drawdown, involves the combustion of waste materials to generate electricity and usable heat. This technology supplants conventional electricity-generating methods, such as coal, oil, and natural gas power plants. The magnitude of impact varies significantly based on several factors, including the caloric content of waste, methane generation potential, likely alternative disposal pathways, and the fossil fuels being displaced.

Waste-to-energy conversion has found widespread adoption in regions such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, and is growing rapidly in China. It is anticipated that Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries will experience significant market penetration, despite the primary barriers, which include high capital costs and the unreliable availability of municipal solid waste with a high heating value.

The total addressable market for the Waste to Energy solution is based on projected global electricity generation from 2020 to 2050. The impacts of increased adoption of waste-to-energy from 2020 to 2050 were calculated based on a scenario developed from various custom scenarios derived from reputable sources, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace, among others. By 2050, this solution is estimated to supply 340.32 terawatt-hours of electricity, constituting 1 percent of the total electricity generation.

The emissions reduction assessment involved a regionally explicit forecast of waste-to-energy adoption and its climate impacts, particularly in terms of avoided methane and carbon dioxide emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-recommended first-order decay method was employed to estimate the total emissions reduction attributable to waste-to-energy conversion when compared to traditional landfill disposal methods.

In the model, financial inputs assumed an average installation cost of US$8,834.42 per kilowatt. Given that waste-to-energy conversion through incineration is a mature technology that has been widely utilized in OECD countries for decades, a learning rate of 2 percent was applied to first costs. A 77 percent average capacity factor for waste-to-energy plants, based on historical data, was used, compared to a 57 percent capacity factor for conventional technologies. Furthermore, fixed operation and maintenance costs of US$396.41 per kilowatt for waste-to-energy systems were compared with US$45.11 per kilowatt for conventional technologies.

The proposed scenario anticipates a remarkable reduction of 6.27 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas emissions. The net first cost to implement this solution from 2020 to 2050 is estimated at approximately US$318.3 billion, while the lifetime net operational cost is projected to be around US$102.8 billion.

While waste-to-energy conversion is preferable to landfilling, it is viewed as a bridge technology that paves the way for more environmentally friendly waste management options. Island nations, in particular, may continue to employ waste-to-energy conversion as an alternative to landfilling, utilizing advanced technologies like plasma gasification to mitigate its negative impacts.

The promotion of waste-to-energy solutions is most likely to succeed in regions where waste disposal and electricity costs are high, and capital resources are readily available. It should be promoted within the context of integrated solid waste management, taking into account the public health risks that poorly regulated waste-to-energy conversion can pose to nearby communities. Stringent pollution controls and the consideration of landfilling as a waste disposal alternative are essential to ensuring that waste-to-energy conversion continues to serve as a valuable avenue for societally beneficial greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

In conclusion, waste-to-energy solutions play a vital role in the global effort to reduce carbon emissions. As a transition strategy, they bridge the gap between traditional waste management and more eco-friendly alternatives. To maximize their impact, it is imperative to apply rigorous regulations and integrated waste management practices that ensure the sustainability of this technology while addressing potential environmental and public health concerns. As waste-to-energy conversion continues to evolve, it remains a crucial component of our journey towards a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

References.
Greenpeace. (2015). World Energy [R]evolution, a sustainable world energy outlook. Retrieved from: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2015/Energy-Revolution-2015-Full.pdf

IEA (2023), Energy Technology Perspectives 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023, License: CC BY 4.0

Monni, Suvi, Riitta Pipatti, Antti Lehtila, Ilkka Savolainen, and Sanna Syri. (2006). Global Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for Solid Waste Management. VTT Publications 603. Espoo. https://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/publications/2006/P603.pdf