Since 1992, when the United Nations recognized climate change as a serious issue, negotiations among countries have produced notable accords, including the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. But leaders have struggled to maintain momentum and failed to slow global temperature rise.
1992. Groundbreaking Rio Earth Summit. The summit results in some of the first international agreements on climate change, which become the foundation for future accords. Among them is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims to prevent “dangerous” human interference in the climate system, acknowledges that human activities contribute to climate change, and recognizes climate change as an issue of global concern. The UNFCCC, which went into force in 1994, does not legally bind signatories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and gives no targets or timetables for doing so. But it requires frequent meetings between the ratifying countries, known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP. As of July 2022, UNFCCC has 198 parties.
1995. First Meeting of UNFCCC Signatories. UNFCCC signatories gather for the first Conference of the Parties, or COP1, in Berlin. The United States pushes back against legally binding targets and timetables, but it joins other parties in agreeing to negotiations to strengthen commitments on limiting greenhouse gases. The concluding document, known as the Berlin Mandate, lays the groundwork for what becomes the Kyoto Protocol, but it is criticized by environmental activists as a political solution that does not prompt immediate action.
1997. In Kyoto, First Legally Binding Climate Treaty. At COP3 in Japan, the conference adopts the Kyoto Protocol. The legally binding treaty requires developed countries to reduce emissions by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels and establishes a system to monitor countries’ progress. But the protocol does not compel developing countries, including high carbon emitters China and India, to take action. It also creates a carbon market for countries to trade emissions units and encourage sustainable development, a system known as “cap and trade.” Countries must now work out the details of implementing and ratifying the protocol.
2001. Breakthrough in Bonn, But Without the U.S. The Kyoto Protocol is in jeopardy after talks collapse in November 2000 and the United States withdraws in March 2001, with Washington saying that the protocol is not in the country’s “economic best interest.” In July 2001, negotiators in Bonn, Germany, reach breakthroughs on green technology, agreements on emissions trading, and compromises on how to account for carbon sinks (natural reservoirs that take in more carbon than they release). In October, countries agree on the rules for meeting targets set by the Kyoto Protocol, paving the way for its entry into force.
2005. Kyoto Protocol Takes Effect. The Kyoto Protocol enters into force in February after it is ratified by enough countries to account for at least 55 percent of global emissions. Notably, it does not include the United States, the world’s leading carbon emitter. Between 2008 and 2012, when the protocol is set to expire, countries are supposed to reduce emissions by their pledged amounts: The European Union commits to reduce emissions by 8 percent below 1990 levels, Japan commits to 5 percent, and Russia commits to keeping levels steady with 1990 levels.
2007. Negotiations Begin for Kyoto 2.0. Before COP13 in Bali, Indonesia, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases a new report with its strongest language yet confirming that global warming is “most likely” caused by human activity. During the conference, discussions begin on a stronger successor to the Kyoto Protocol. But they come to a standstill after the United States objects to a widely backed proposal that calls for all industrialized nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by specific targets. U.S. officials argue that developing countries must also make commitments. A delegate from Papua New Guinea tells the United States to “get out of the way” if it does not want to lead the international response to climate change. Washington eventually backs down, and the parties adopt the Bali Action Plan, which establishes the goal of drafting a new climate agreement by 2009.
2009. U.S. Joins Bold Statements at UN. Three months ahead of the target date for a new agreement, several world leaders pledge actions during a UN summit on climate change hosted by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Chinese President Hu Jintao announces a plan to cut emissions by a “notable margin” by 2020, marking the first time Beijing commits to reducing its rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama pledges to reduce emissions by 25 percent. U.S. President Barack Obama, in his first UN address, says the United States is determined to act and lead, but he doesn’t offer any new proposals. Ban expresses hope that leaders will reach a “substantive deal” during the upcoming conference in Copenhagen.
December 2009. Disappointment in Copenhagen. The successor to the Kyoto Protocol is supposed to be finalized at COP15 in Copenhagen, but the parties only come up with a nonbinding document that is “taken note of,” not adopted. The Copenhagen Accord acknowledges that global temperatures should not increase by 2°C (3.6°F) above preindustrial levels, though representatives from developing countries sought a target of 1.5°C (2.7°F). (A 2009 report from the American Meteorological Society predicts a 3.5°C [6.3°F] to 7.4°C [13.3°F] increase in less than one hundred years). After leading the negotiations, U.S. President Barack Obama tells the conference that the accord is “not enough.” Some countries later vow to follow the accord—though it remains nonbinding—and make their own pledges.
2010. Temperature Target Set in Cancun. There is increased pressure to reach a consensus in Mexico during COP16 after the failure in Copenhagen and NASA’s announcement that 2000–2009 was the warmest decade ever recorded. Countries commit for the first time to keep global temperature increases below 2°C in the Cancun Agreements. Approximately eighty countries, including China, India, and the United States, as well as the European Union, submit emissions reduction targets and actions, and they agree on stronger mechanisms for monitoring progress. But analysts say it’s not enough to stay below the 2° target. The Green Climate Fund, a $100 billion fund to assist developing countries in mitigating and adapting to climate change, is also established.
This wraps up the progress of climate policies from 1992-2010, twelve years with substantial progress. The next article delves into 2010-2022. The content in this text is adapted from the Council on Foreign Relations.
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